The first month of 2025 delivered significant economic shifts, with key developments influencing global and Australian financial markets. From policy changes in the United States to rate-cut expectations in Australia, investors are keeping a close eye on opportunities and risks.

Global market trends: US tariffs and economic policy shifts

The inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. President marked a pivotal moment for global trade, with tariffs immediately imposed on Canada, Mexico, China, and Colombia. However, these measures remain fluid, as the administration has shown a willingness to remove tariffs when concessions are made, creating ongoing uncertainty in trade policy.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has taken a cautious stance, holding the cash rate steady at 4.25-4.50%. Despite rate cuts in Canada, the UK, and Europe, the Fed appears hesitant to ease further amid tightening financial conditions, a stronger U.S. dollar, and rising bond yields.

Meanwhile, China has continued efforts to stimulate its economy, with further monetary and fiscal easing expected in 2025. The introduction of DeepSeek, a new AI platform developed at a fraction of the cost of U.S. AI counterparts, triggered a market correction in U.S. AI-related stocks, raising questions about China’s growing competitive edge.

Australian market performance: Inflation and interest rate expectations

January brought encouraging inflation data, with headline CPI at 2.4% (below the expected 2.5%) and core inflation at 3.2% (compared to a 3.3% market forecast). The monthly core inflation figure of 2.7% suggests further declines ahead, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts.

Market analysts are now pricing in a 90% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the RBA’s February 18 meeting, with further cuts expected by mid-2025. However, the easing cycle may be limited to two or three cuts, as low unemployment and concerns about wage and services inflation persist.

The upcoming federal election (due by May 2025) adds another layer of complexity, with government policies likely to influence economic decision-making.

Commodities and trade: China’s resilience amid tariff threats

Despite concerns over U.S. tariffs on China, commodity prices have been rising in early 2025, suggesting underlying strength in global demand. Signs of resilience in the Chinese economy could provide additional support for commodities, benefiting Australian resource sectors.

Investment outlook: Opportunities and key risks in 2025

With shifting global policies and expected rate cuts in Australia, investors should be mindful of both opportunities and risks:

Potential opportunities

• Equities and investment growth: U.S. stock markets continue to outperform, and an easing monetary environment could support earnings growth.
• Australian rate cuts: Expected RBA cuts in 2025 may create opportunities in equities, real estate, and bonds.
• China’s economic recovery: Positive momentum in China could drive demand for Australian commodities and resources.

Key risks to watch

• Delayed RBA rate cuts: If inflation remains above target, the RBA may push back planned rate reductions.
• Uncertainty in global trade: Trump’s tariff policies could disrupt global supply chains and investment confidence.
• Geopolitical and environmental risks: Market stability remains vulnerable to climate events, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory changes.

Upcoming key events for investors

• Australian 1H25 reporting season – February 2025
• RBA meeting – February 18, 2025
• U.S. Federal Reserve meeting – March 19, 2025
• Australian Federal election – Due by May 17, 2025

Final thoughts

With monetary easing in major economies and positive inflation trends in Australia, financial markets present promising opportunities for long-term investors. However, uncertainties around U.S. trade policy and global financial conditions require a cautious and well-strategized investment approach.

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